Intelligence tradecraft in the face of stone age scenarios:

First approach

Did we anticipate the rise of a pandemic like Covid19? Yes, at least one research (Global Trends 2025, published in 2008 by the National Intelligence Council and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence) anticipated the emergence of a global pandemic before 2024.

What are some of the other critical scenarios that have been predicted? Everything from severe climate change to kinetic conflicts to...you got it...contact with extraterrestrial life is on the table.

I recently came across an interesting paper written by Dr. Ian Oxnevad for the JMSS (Journal of Military and Strategic Studies) called: "The truth is mostly right here: The security dilemma and the Earthly Logic of an Extraterrestrial Threat"2.

In that paper, Dr. Oxnevad argues that: the idea alone of intelligent extraterrestrial alien threat severely affects the implications of the security dilemma in international relations, up until the point that such threat is openly and fully confirmed. The perceived presence of a technologically advanced non-human threat with unknown intent and capability effectively removes any impediments to states seeking unlimited increases in military capacity while creating unique intelligence challenges. 

In a hypothetical scenario in which we admit as true evidence of extraterrestrial aliens the recent declassified videos of encounters of US Navy pilots from the USS Nimitz with UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) or the 2015 encounter known as the 'Gimbal' UFO with a Navy Fighter Jet from the USS Theodore Roosevelt or the UFO recorded by the USS Omaha Combat Information Center (3), then we could assume that -obviously- there is a monitoring of military exercises and capabilities by an advance non-human civilization.

For the purposes of this hypothetical scenario, we can also assume that the Russian military, China, and India have documented similar instances, even if they have not been made public. So, since this is an article and not a white paper, let's assume that those instances, as well as others unaccounted for in the recent decade, are part of an advanced technical scouting expedition from another civilization analyzing human military offensive and defensive capabilities.

But why? Do we really think they need to know about our military capabilities before making formal contact with us? Or as Dr. Oxnevad bluntly writes: If human beings have acted so inhumanely towards one another on Earth, there is no reason to believe another civilization will harbor some greater form of enlightenment and amity in its actions toward us. I'd just add: especially if they've been listening in on our radio transmissions for the past 50 years!

So, here's the first question: if they show up tomorrow and claim they care more about our natural resources than our cheery personality or culinary quirks, do you think they'll allow us to launch a preemptive strike to protect our resources or livelihood...?

Intelligence analysts today are having a blast. We have a large number of data sources, integration tools, and visual analysis applications to choose from. Open-source intelligence is filtered, geolocated, and screened at various levels before being indexed and contrasted until it reaches the level of actionable intelligence ready for our assessments and/or intel estimates/forecasts... but what if we lose satellite communications, all primary and backup power sources, and the entire electromagnetic spectrum is compromised or shut down? Oh, and don't forget about the global submarine fiber-optic cable network, which, for the sake of this exercise, has also been lost or disrupted.

So, where do we go from here? What can we do to make sense of the threat that persists? How will we obtain the information and disseminate it throughout the country? ¿ What measures will we take to ensure the safety of our operations? How would we evaluate the intelligence at hand, and how would we communicate the requirements to our field agents?

Consider that for a moment. Isn't this a doomsday scenario? Any advanced civilization with hostile intent, on the other hand, would use this strategy to sabotage command and control, compromise intelligence gathering and our ability to share it with allies, and sow social unrest, all of which would erode the state's ability to project power, order, and unity.

What proof do we have? From Sun Tzu to Clausewitz to modern cyber warfare, it has always been acknowledged as a crucial strategy. Interoperability is lost when top-level strata are separated from the remainder of a bureaucratic system.

We won't, however, go gently into the night, will we? So, how much would our intelligence tradecraft have to evolve and adapt in order to deliver actionable results that could assist, say, a coordinated resistance movement?

When I think about this hypothetical exercise, I can't avoid remembering the conversation that Russell Crowe has with some senior CIA officers in the movie "Body of Lies (2008)" with Leonardo di Caprio:

because our enemy...

...has realized that they are fighting guys

from the future.

Now, ahem, it is brilliant

as it is infuriating.

If you live like it's the past,

and you behave like it's the past...

...then guys from the future

find it very hard to see you.

If you throw away your cell phone,

shut down your e-mail...

...pass all your instructions face-to-face,

hand-to-hand...

...turn your back on technology

and just disappear into the crowd...

No flags. No uniforms.

You got your basic grunts

on the ground there.

They're looking going,

"Who is it we're fighting?"

In a situation like this,

your friends dress just like your enemies...

...and your enemies dress

like your friends. 

Change the opponent to a more advanced technological civilization in need of our natural resources but not so much of us, and we'd have to adapt to non-technological means to try to avoid technology. This scenario might also occur in the event of other catastrophic disasters, such as a geomagnetic storm, pole shift, killer asteroid, or WWIII, to mention a few. 

So, what intelligence tradecraft should we teach for contexts like the ones described? Do our current intelligence analysis classes cover the foundations (such as the intelligence cycle) and how to do each of its components without using a computer? 

In a world as complex as ours, I prefer an intelligence analyst who knows critical thinking, forecasting techniques, and how to present complex data in a BLUF (Bottom Line Up First). 

We must exercise caution. In an era where artificial intelligence is prevalent, predictive analytics is widely used, and image recognition and geolocations are basic day-to-day analysis work, the intelligence community must consider and prepare for a scenario in which technology is unavailable or severely disrupted.

Takeaways:  

1. We must not lose sight of basic intelligence tradecraft because AI is the norm and the future of intelligence. If COVID 19 has taught us anything, it is that Black Swans are always around the corner, and whether we forecast them or not, they will always surprise us due to the speed with which they emerge, and our adaptation (or coping) process will always be slow. That has repercussions. 

2. We are well aware of the technological challenges posed by ATP (Advanced Persistent Threats), as well as the concerns associated with the combination of advanced technological expertise and extremist ideology. Our world will not be any safer in the future; it will remain as volatile as it is now or worse. Geopolitical tensions will persist, and populist politicians or dictators will make bold political steps that threaten peace and stability in various regions, but intelligence analysis will always be required nonetheless.

3. Has anyone recently written a secret letter with lemon juice? It's never too late to learn hidden writing techniques. I'm sure ET will have a hard time deciphering that one!

1 https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/202

2 https://jmss.org/article/view/74704

3 https://www.history.com/topics/paranormal/uss-nimitz-tic-tac-ufo-declassified-video / https://www.history.com/topics/paranormal/uss-roosevelt-gimbal-ufo-declassified-video / https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/05/28/ufo-radar-video-shows-objects-swarming-navy-ship/7487390002/